Bear with me, these have been a strange few weeks...
Last week: 7-7; Overall since Week 8: 15-12
OAK @ SD: SD.
Rivers put up 4 TDs and almost came through to beat GB last week which shows promise considering his play lately, that being said he also gave 3 INTs… Carson Palmer also had a good game putting up a lot of yards, but ultimately the OAK defense just isn't good enough at this point to handle any team with a few weapons, I'd expect a SD wash in this one. To further my point, Palmer's arm is his greatest strength, but this week he's going against the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. This game is an important one because 1. It's a division game. And 2. It will break up the 3 way Tie for the AFC West lead. Expect points regardless.
OAK 20 - SD 35
ARI @ PHI: PHI.
Arizona is playing with 2nd stringer John Skelton, who isn't bad at all, but he's still a newbie and he hasn't faced much pressure in his career so far, especially not against STL last week. PHI will be reeling after that loss in CHI last week and will be motivated to win this game to get back into playoff contention. PHI just has too many weapons against the ARI secondary that's ranked 29th in the league… Vick will have a field day, expect yards and a lot of points from PHI. Pick the over.
ARI 13 - PHI 42
TEN @ CAR: CAR.
These two teams have a very similar defense, the only difference this week being that CAR will be rested after a BYE week. Tennessee has been struggling offensively lately and CJ2K has NOT been producing what was expected of him. Lately there have been talks of letting him go at the end of the season, so expect him to be on the backburner and Javon Ringer to take the lead RB position. CAR on the other hand has a very explosive offense with the agility that Cam Newton provides, I'd expect him to take this one, although CAR seem to always have close games… Give it to the rested team with no drama in their locker room.
TEN 20 - CAR 30
HOU @ TB: HOU.
The Texans are looking like superbowl contenders, there I said it. Their defense is the best in the league in my opinion, because it is the most well rounded. They are 2nd against the pass (letting only 182,6 yards per game) and 4th against the run (letting only 91,4 yards per game). What about their offense? Well they are in the top third with the pass, but their true offense lies in the running game with Arian Foster allowing the team to be 2nd in the league rushing (155.1 Yards per game). What about TB? Well exactly, what about em? They are ranked 28th in virtually every aspect, leaving way too many yards to be any match for Schaub and Foster who will keep moving the chains in a ridiculous manner. Expect a huge wash here.
HOU 42 - TB 6
WAS @ MIA: MIA.
This is a tough game to call, because both of these teams are very similar. They both struggle offensively and they both are okay defensively, WAS being a little bit better against the pass but not against the run and vice-versa for MIA. The reason why I'm giving the advantage to MIA is simply because of the running game that is a little bit more consistent and the fact that they are getting better week after week, getting a decisive victory against KC last week when KC was a clear favourite after they took down SD the week before. Matt Moore got 3 TDs and no INTs against that tough pressure in KC. Also, the QB situation in WAS is dire, Beck clearly isn't doing the job so far, but Shanahan is adamant about him being the new starter and keeping Grossman on the bench. Either way, MIA has the edge here in a relatively unexciting game.
WAS 23 - MIA 27
STL @ CLE: STL.
This should be a relatively low key, low score game with these two teams just being awful day in, day out. CLE is particularly screwed because they have absolutely no running game, whilst STL does have talent there with Steven Jackson coming off 130+ yards in two consecutive games. Defense wise, the Browns have the best pass defense in the league, but are 30th against the run… Can Steven Jackson get through again? I think so. I don't see CLE winning here unless McCoy has the game of his life, then again Bradford can always have his aswell. Give it to the running game. Honestly… I wouldn't bet on this game.
STL 13 - CLE 10
BUF @ DAL: DAL.
This game is going to be VERY interesting for several reasons. The first being that both of these teams are desperate for W's, the Bills being tied 3 ways in the AFC East and the Cowboys being down two games for the lead in the NFC East. Add to that the fact that both of these teams have a very inconsistent, yet explosive at times offense, and you can be sure to have fireworks in this one. I'm giving the edge to DAL because they have a new found running game in DeMarco Murray and they are always underperforming, whereas the Bills also have their moments, but were completely scrubbed against the Jets Defense last week. Then again, if the Bills play half as well as they did in the beginning of the season, this will be a very tough game for DAL, especially since Miles Austin is out for the next 4-6 weeks… Ugh, I'm going to stop writing before I change my own mind.
BUF 28 - DAL 33
PIT @ CIN: CIN.
This game is huge because the winner of this one will most probably take the lead in the AFC North. Both defenses are incredible, they leave nothing on the run and very little on the pass, both offenses are difficult to call, on the one hand CIN gets in the redzone but don't put up as many yards as PIT who doesn't get into the redzone as much. I think CIN will take this one, because they are very underrated even at this stage in the season, they are 6-2! Andy Dalton should be the story, but Cam Newton is all anyone talks about, which is great for him, because he has no pressure, he goes out, plays his game, connects with AJ Green and wins. PIT has to be banged up after that BAL game.
PIT 13 - CIN 20
JAX @ IND: JAX.
In a battle of the baddies, I'll give my support to the rested baddies with a relatively good defense against the Colts who are just bad all around. This will be a shitty game, count on it. Don't really need to explain how the 0-9 Colts are tired and resigned to losing do I? Gabbert comes back healthy and MJD Powers through the field in a low scoring affair.
JAX 20 - IND 10
DEN @ KC: KC.
Even after last week's performance ousting the Raiders 38 to 24, I still can't jump on the Tebow Train. The guy can't pass for his life. He relies entirely on his agility and McGahee, which isn't a bad idea, it just makes for a predictable offense. I think KC just had a bad game where they couldn't control the pace versus a determined team when they lost to Miami. The week before they took it to SD for a win. Regardless this game is obviously tough to call, but I think Tebow isn't well rounded enough to rack up wins. KC pulls through.
DEN 24 - KC 30
NO @ ATL: ATL.
My first inclination is that NO has troubles on the road, whereas ATL thrives at home. They've got Turner, Jones and White that are capable of truly explosive plays at any moment and they are looking better and better. They've allowed on average about 15 pts a game during their last 4 games against teams like GB, CAR and DET (IND got 7 pts against them). Which is an impressive feat. NO on the other hand has dropped games against STL and TB and almost lost to CAR about a month ago. The difference now is that NO has less and less weapons as they go on, looking forward to that BYE week. I think ATL will be rested and ready to win at the Georgia Dome, although not in a given match.
NO 24 - ATL 30
BAL @ SEA: BAL.
The Seahawks are having a tough time getting their offense going as of late, I can't see that getting better against a very rough BAL defensive line. Tarvaris Jackson will see a lot of pressure and will probably be forced into difficult position a few times during the game. BAL takes it outright simply by an outstanding defensive performance.
BAL 31 - SEA 17
DET @ CHI: CHI.
Chicago looked really good in Philadelphia last week. I think Marzt has finally found a good balance to his offense and their pass rush was quite impressive. Urlacher and Peppers are scary to play against. Matthew Stafford is coming off an injury and I don't think he'll be quite at 100%. Also, Jahvid Best won't be playing because of his concussion, making for a worse running game. I think Calvin Johnson is always a threat, but like they shut down PHI last week, CHI should do the same here at home.
DET 24 - CHI 30
NYG @ SF: SF.
San Francisco are doing so good lately, they have the best defense in the league averaging 14.8 points against. They also have a good running game and they shut down the run quite effectively (1st in league with an average of 70.8 yards against). The funny thing is that the Giants are bad against the run and have the 29th ranked running game in the league, further accentuation SF's strengths. So how do you get through an offense that shuts down the run? You pass. That's what the Niners want with a total of 10 INTs in 9 games and an average of 2,5 sacks per game. Expect Manning to be looking for receivers and picking himself up off the floor in this funny game.
NYG 13 - SF 27
NE @ NYJ: NE.
They met once already and NE won 30 - 21. I don't see how it could be different this time around. Rex Ryan will mouth off as he usually does when these rivals meet and Belichick will just win. Brady spreads the pass all over and his defense makes that Sanchez look even worse than he usually does. I hate the fucking Jets. Everyone wants to win in this one, playoff implications.
NE 30 - NYJ 17
MIN @ GB: GB.
On their way to a perfect season, at home… MIN doesn't stand a chance on this monday nighter. GB is just looking too good lately, no matter how rested the opposing team is, Rodgers finds his guys and gets it done.
MIN 21 - GB 35
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