Last week: 10 - 5
Overall since week 8: 25 - 17
BYEs this week: Pittsburgh, Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans
NYJ @ DEN: NYJ.
I hate the Jets, so I hope this shows you how much I hate Tebow. He completed two passes out of 8 attempts last week against KC with an average defense. As much as the pass was prime under the arm of Orton, the run is now prime under the legs of Tebow. The issue for this matchup is that the Jets are pretty good defensively against everything and they know how to put pressure on QBs. With Revis in the backfield expect a few interceptions if he does try the pass and inefficiency if he tries to run. Jets take it by lack of talent from Tebow.
NYJ 27 - DEN 13
CAR @ DET: DET.
This is a tricky game to call, because CAR lost last week because TEN put a spy on him. Knowing full well that he's a runner and he can throw it up for a 50-60 yarder... Now that CAR knows their weakness it'll be interesting to see how they react to that and adapt their offense. DET also didn't look as good last week, but it was mostly because of a formidable CHI defense, so I'd expect them to rise a bit more this week. I also think Best might be coming back this week aswell, so we'll see, but I'd give it to them regardless as long as they can stop those big plays from Newton. The Lions pass def is ranked higher than the Titans' so I'd expect they can.
CAR 20 - DET 30
TB @ GB: GB.
'nuff said.
TB 17 - GB 49
DAL @ WAS: DAL.
Dallas is looking better and better with their newfound running game in DeMarco Murray, completely ousting Buffalo last week. They finally look like the team everyone's been saying they were. They have one of the more complete offenses this year and I believe it'll show here against one of the more inconsistent ones. WAS is still looking for its place in the NFL, the QB caroussel has everyone confused to the point of making stupid penalties seem natural. Give it to consistency and hard work, Dallas washes.
DAL 33 - WAS 17
CIN @ BAL: CIN.
Cincinnati almost took it to PIT last week, with unfortunate picks in the late game for the loss. BAL on the other hand gave a very ugly show last week losing to the Seahawks. CIN's defense is one of the best in the league and well rounded, I think if SEA defense could get it done against BAL, CIN should take it outright. Also to note, CIN sacked Roethlisberger 5 times against a PIT O-Line who barely averages one given sack per game. My gut says CIN.
CIN 24 - BAL 17
JAX @ CLE: JAX.
In a very similar match for CLE as they got last week, here's another running oriented offense with a so-so QB coming in for the win. CLE struggles in every aspect still, stagnant inefficient offense and a shitty run defense. Although they are 1st against the pass, the fact that they are 30th against the run against MJD isn't very promising for JAX in this game. Expect MJD to be as consistent as he's been with a lot of yards and TD. Also expect Jacksonville's more well rounded defense to show up in this one.
JAX 24 - CLE 16
BUF @ MIA: BUF.
Okay MIA won last week and BUF had their worst game of the season. This stuff happens in the NFL. The fact remains that BUF has a way more complete and explosive offense than MIA does, better QB and better RB. MIA's defense is better than BUF, but can Matt Moore really take advantage of that enough to clinch it for MIA during this game? I don't think so. BUF will be looking for redemption in this one.
BUF 28 - MIA 17
OAK @ MIN: OAK.
These two teams are similar in every way except maybe Run Defense where MIN thrives and OAK sinks, but that isn't much of a problem with Palmer's arm... I guess what makes me tend towards OAK is simply last week's results and the fact that MIN is coming off a Monday Night Game so they won't be as rested as OAK for this one. Regardless it'll be a very close game with points.
OAK 27 - MIN 24
SEA @ STL: SEA.
This game is also weird seeing as STL is a different team at home and they have a newfound running game in Steven Jackson. I guess what annoys me is the inconsistency of STL offense despite amazing running from Jackson, why can't they find the endzone? The Seahawks have been equally inconsistent, but will have more momentum going into this one after their win against BAL... This is truly anybody's game.
SEA 20 - STL 13
ARI @ SF: SF.
SF's defense is just too good for Arizona to handle. That win last week against PHI was primarily because of Vick's injury and we shouldn't see that as the standard for ARI. SF on the other hand has been on a very consistent hot streak against very good teams, ARI should be an easy one for them...
ARI 13 - SF 24
TEN @ ATL: ATL.
ATL at home is a whole different story than on the road and they will be reeling after that OT loss against NO last week. TEN seems to be getting their act together, but I just don't think they can bring enough to beat ATL in their house. TEN's win last week came because of a cute flaw they found in Carolina's defense, ATL doesn't have that and it'll just be another one of those games where TEN can't establish anything on the run.
TEN 17 - ATL 30
SD @ CHI: CHI.
This is becoming increasingly easier to call. CHI is on the rise and their defense is playing splendidly whereas SD is on the downfall and they, in general, are playing quite poorly. Their O-Line just sucks right now and they are going to have the toughest time dealing against CHI's QB pressure. CHI wins this one in a wash. SD won't be able to modify their offense enough to be able to cope with the pressure without their starters.
SD 17 - CHI 33
PHI @ NYG: NYG.
Vick is out with broken ribs, leaving the poorly prepared, hotheaded, Vince Young to make something happen. The Giants beat Young convincingly already once this season and I don't see that changing this time 'round. The Giants almost took it from the best defense in the league last week and they are now facing a PHI team with half of it's running game gone and a QB who hasnt started in a few months. Expect NYG to pull this one off rather easily.
PHI 17 - NYG 33
KC @ NE: NE.
Matt Cassel is out for the season with an injury, leaving a complete nobody at the helm of an already struggling offense. Good Luck.
KC 9 - NE 42
As always, check injuries, I make my picks pretty early in the week and good luck!
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